Geo-Political Road Map to United States 2030
The problem with the political establishment in Washington is that they recognize China’s growing dominance but seem unable to grasp the reasons behind it. They don’t understand or don’t agree with why China is winning, why the USA is losing, and why nations are increasingly aligning themselves with China’s vision of a multipolar world.
They believe the solution lies in more educational exchanges, focused investments, increased US aid, more grants, technology transfer restrictions and greater military deterrence—more of the same strategies. However, none of the solutions proposed by various US committees and panels address the core problem: China is growing more powerful each year, and nothing the United States has done has hampered it, only slowed down the inevitable. China is able to dominate because it is becoming extremely wealthy. China is gaining this wealth and influence via its strategic use of trade to gain global dominance.
The simple reason is that China strategically uses its over $2.6 trillion (and growing) in imports to cultivate relationships and exert influence. China has decided to surpass the United States in trade dominance across South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa (the global south).
China’s strategy is to establish incredibly fair and balanced trade relationships with countries it deems crucial to its interests, forging indispensable economic links. It has specifically targeted several nations for this purpose. This is how China is winning. We published an article about this titled “China’s Grooming Countries for Influence.” or on the repression side: “MITU countries repressed by China”
A great example: The US targeted investment of $555 million in the Lobito Corridor—specifically, in a railway to export minerals from Angola—is insignificant compared to China’s influence in Angola through trade. To illustrate: China imported $18.9 billion from Angola in 2023, while the USA imported only $1.2 billion. Some politicians who benefited from this project might praise the US, but China is dominating Angola, having provided over $45 billion in loans over the last 24 years.
Brazil, for example, was once a close ally of the USA, but now it’s clearly aligned with China, even echoing China’s stance on de-dollarization more vocally than China itself.
Having lived in Brazil for 13 years, I’ve witnessed firsthand the growing Chinese influence. I’ve seen the PT (Workers’ Party) newsletters, which are rumored to be written by Cuba and funded by China. These newsletters often have a very anti-American and anti-capitalist tone (which is ironic, considering China’s own capitalist system).
The point is that China is winning because it’s not pursuing some idealistic “free trade globalization” model. Instead, China is strategically using trade and mercantilism to advance its own interests, and it’s proving to be a very effective strategy. To be honest, I believe US trade prior to the globalization mantra was far more focused and targeted.
The first problem with the US trade strategy is its reliance on foreign aid to gain influence. While the US spends $60 billion annually on aid, this is a paltry sum compared to China’s $2.6 trillion import budget. Countries in developing regions prioritize economic growth and job creation, and China delivers on those fronts through trade, not aid.
Even Biden’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment which planned to counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), despite lofty goals of $600 billion in private investment is still a scratch to China’s $2.6 trillion dollar, per year, focused trade budget. When weighed ove 10 years, China is buyihg $26 trillion from everyone over the next 10 years, this is real power and influence. Aid will make friendships but trade can build alliances.
When it came to using trade as influence, the United States has not engaged in this path. The United States has had a tendency to rely heavily on a small number of partners and a free unrestricted trade mantra started in the 1960’s. For decades, we concentrated our efforts on Europe, Japan, then South Korea, then Taiwan and now Mexico. The advantage of these countries was that none ever sought to challenge the United States or become a superpower.
Then came China, when the US encountered China in the 1970s, it saw a massive potential market and made a critical strategic blunder. Instead of focusing on China, the United States should have concentrated all its efforts on Southeast Asia and avoided China altogether. China changed in 2013 with Xi Jinping and their goals are clearly to dominate the world.
Today, the US is making a similar mistake by pinning its hopes on India. However, India has unspoken superpower ambitions, and increased wealth won’t necessarily translate into submissiveness. A wealthy India is likely to assert itself and challenge the United States’ world order model, though not in the aggressive way that China operates. The trade relationship between the United States and India is already distorted. I understand why US companies and advisors want India to rise to counter China; and to access 1.4 billion consumers, however, a powerful India will also counter certain US interests. This is not to say that India is not a priority, but the US can’t get into these lopsided, one-way trade relations with another major country, as they will be harder to unwind later.
Currently, we concentrate our trade imports heavily on China, Canada, Europe, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico, which account for most of our total imports. It’s no surprise that the dollar is declining as a reserve currency, as its circulation is limited by this concentrated approach to developed countries and China, effectively depriving nearly every developing country. In 2022, China, Mexico and Canada accounted for more than 50% of all imports to the United States.
China, on the other hand, has spread its imports across 10 different countries for its first 50% of imports, capping imports from any one country at about $200 billion. China is specifically focusing on targeting countries the United States has relationships with or has neglected.
If the USA is dedicating 70% of its imports to approximately half the worlds population, mostly developed countries, and 30% of its imports to the other half of the worlds population this is a major problem. This explains dollar scarcity, why China can go into Argentina and build space bases, why China can convert Pakistan from alliances with the USA to buying Chinese fighter jets, and why Brazil is clearly aligning with China. By 2030 China will import more from Brazil than it does from the United States, this is not perceived as a problem by politicians?
To address the contrarians: yes, we recognize that dollars flow between all countries in international trade. However, China is selectively focusing on certain countries and purposely suppressing others. The US needs to step up and direct more of its dollars toward countries it needs as allies in the future.
The United States needs a more sensible trade plan, one that targets a diverse group of countries poised for growth, but without the potential to challenge US dominance. Since World War II, US trade policy was designed to use Eurodollars to help Europe rebuild, and this transitioned into helping developing nations (Singpore, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan). This strategy could expand the reach of the dollar and strengthen its position as a global reserve currency if it were used as originally intended: to help countries rise economically.
China as a Super Power:
If the United States doesn’t act, by 2035, China will most likely be a larger importer than the United States. When China imports more than the USA each year, it will likely push its own financial transaction system onto each of its trading partners, stating, “If you want us to buy this $150 billion worth of goods from your country, you will have to use our payment system.” Effectively undermining the trade system established after World War II, this would diminish the dollar’s status as a reserve currency and ultimately end the United States’ ability to wield sanctions as a tool to enforce world order. This would end the United States’ superpower status because, without this control, the United States is not a superpower. It becomes more similar to Germany and Japan – incredibly wealthy countries with no real power to influence any country around the world. There are many other reasons why things will be far worst for the United States.
King Dollar:
The best way the United States can maintain the dollar’s dominance as the international reserve currency is to ensure it circulates in countries that don’t seek to replace it. By helping the 21 countries listed below build up dollar reserves, achieve trade surpluses, and increase imports with this newfound wealth, they are less likely to challenge the dollar’s role in the global economy. China, on the other hand, wants to challenge the dollar. Why would the USA trade with a country that wants to disrupt the established system?
The Last Chance:
The United States now has a last chance, with a fearless president, to overturn 45 years of globalist policies that have weakened its global standing. If a real resolution and not a political deal is signed soon, it will be too late. To achieve this, the country needs to take significant steps, such as:
Achieve Balanced Trade with China: The US must strive for balanced trade or a surplus with China. The goal is to stop fueling China’s economic growth with US dollars. Its export-driven model allows China to accumulate wealth, buy resources globally, and strengthen strategic partnerships, ultimately increasing its importing power. The ideal scenario is a $1-to-$1 trade ratio, or even $0-to-$0. While China relies heavily on Qualcomm and Texas Instruments, these companies would not be crippled if China stopped buying from them. China uses their products in electronics that are then exported to other countries. If the US sourced those electronics from elsewhere, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments would still sell products to companies in countries outside of China.
Even with $1-to-$1 trade and the elimination of Chinese components and transhipments into the United States, the Chinese trade surplus will only be reduced from $1.06 trillion to about $700 billion. The US can achieve a greater reduction by:
Addressing the trade imbalances of other countries with China. Europe and 20 other countries have large trade deficits with China, indicating potential exploitation by China based on 2022/2023 data:
Building up the manufacturing sectors of its 21 partner countries. When countries like Indonesia produce billions of dollars worth of consumer products for the United States, they will automatically compete with China. If Indonesia, currently importing $68 billion from China, produces those goods domestically, it will reduce its reliance on Chinese imports. These 21 countries could collectively decrease their imports from China by another $100 billion over five years.
Trade Deficit with China (in billions of US dollars)
- Europe: $297
- India: $98.5
- Mexico: $62.3 (projected to reach $100 billion in 2024)
- United Kingdom: $57.9
- Singapore: $46
- Vietnam: $44.86
- Turkey: $34.3
- Philippines: $33
- Thailand: $25
- Bangladesh: $22
- Kyrgyzstan: $18.87
- Nigeria: $17.63
- Egypt: $14.12
- Pakistan: $13.6
- Panama: $9.68
- Kenya: $7.58
- Israel: $6.61
- Colombia: $5.9
- Dominican Republic: $3.67
The total trade deficit for these 30 countries is $818 billion. Convincing these countries to balance their trade with China through tariffs is key to curbing China’s economic dominance. A combined 20% tariff on Chinese goods by these countries could reduce this deficit by 25%. A 50% tariff could theoretically eliminate the deficit and push China into an overall trade deficit, potentially hindering its ability to become a global superpower. However, such a high tariff would likely only be implemented if the world recognized that China’s global leadership posed a significant threat to peace and civility, as evidenced by its surveillance state. The world also needs alternative sources for products, and that is why the U.S. must focus on supporting 21 other countries to meet that supply.
Tariffs on products with Chinese components: Another crucial way to reduce China’s trade surplus with the US is to impose tariffs on products containing Chinese components. Singapore ($46 billion deficit), Mexico ($62 billion deficit), and Vietnam ($44 billion deficit) import significant amounts of Chinese components for re-export, often to the US or Europe. Tariffing these products upon entry to the US could result in at least a $100 billion reduction in the Chinese trade surplus.
deally, actions taken by the United States to balance trade would include removing Chinese components, building up manufacturing in more countries, and convincing partners and allies to slightly raise tariffs on China. This would effectively reduce China’s overall trade surplus from over $1 trillion per year today to about $400 billion per year by 2030. While this would still be the largest surplus, it would significantly diminish China’s odds of becoming the sole superpower. The trick is to convince Europe and other allied countries to raise tariffs high enough to achieve balanced trade.
THE STEPS
Restrict Chinese Components in Imports: Prevent products containing Chinese components from entering the US, regardless of their country of origin. To achieve this, impose tariffs on all products with Chinese components, forcing a supply chain shift and reducing China’s global trade surplus.
Revoke China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations.
Halt US Investment in Chinese Companies: Prohibit US investors from purchasing shares in Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. Only companies that meet the strict US accounting procedures should be allowed.
Cease Funding Chinese Research: Stop all US funding and grants to Chinese research labs, as was the case involving the Wuhan lab that possible/supposedly was the rumored uncertain source of Covid.
Identify Strategic Trading Partners: Determine which countries the US wishes to prioritize for future trade partnerships. Convince these partners to place large tariffs against China as well.
Reach Out: For bi-lateral trade agreements with as many developing countries as possible, ideally countries with a large population so as we buy their products, they buy US agriculture products.
Document WTO Violations: Compile a detailed record of China’s violations of World Trade Organization procedures.
Expose Mercantilist Practices: Highlight China’s mercantilist behaviors to countries negatively affected by them, such as Brazil, to build alliances and encourage reform. Showing Brazil that China is the reason for their de-industrialization and is the reason Brazil can’t grow, may help Brazil open its eyes.
Build up Allies and Partners low end Manufacturing: More factories in more countries that are not owned by the Chinese and preferably owned by US companies.
Convince Countries with Trade Deficits to Tariff China
Lastly Pass a Simple Law With the following Core Provisions
The Trade Rebalancing, Dollar Circulation and Global South Diversification Act of 2025
Section 1: Tariffs on Imports from China
(a) Phased Tariffs on Non-Alternative Goods: All products imported into the United States originating in China, for which there are no readily available alternative sources or that cannot be easily manufactured in other countries, shall be subject to a non-negotiable tariff of 18% in Year 1, with no exemptions. This tariff shall rise 1% per month and continue to increase each month until balanced trade (1:1 import/export ratio) is achieved between the United States and China. Tariffs will be suspended upon meeting the 1 to 1 ratio, will stay steady for one year and then decline or rise according to the ratio at a rate of 1% per month.
Breakdown of (a) (The goal is to give China and the United States companies time to adjust in order to prevent economic chaos and havoc, it may take up to 10 years to reach a 1 to 1 ratio. The long duration 1% raise is 12% per year, gradually, and is designed to be slow. The 18% initial is to counter the 19% currency decline over 10 years and the 8.4% goods deflation over the last 2 years)
(b) Immediate Tariffs on Alternative Goods: All products imported into the United States from China for which immediate alternative supply sources exist, including commodities, food, shoes, apparel, domestic appliances, most textiles and other readily substitutable goods, shall be subject to a 100% tariff.
Breakdown: We want to have an impact in the 21 countries and in the USA, if things can be made in the USA, or outside of China, then there is no reason to buy from China.
(c) Tariffs on Future Technologies: All products classified as future technologies, which China does not currently manufacture, shall be subject to a 500% tariff.
(d) Carve-Outs: There is a carve-out for Tesla and Apple, allowing them to continue importing from China for three years while they transition away from China for the US domestic market. Upon the three-year expiration, the tariff rises from 0% to 54%.
Breakdown: The thre year tariff is a catch up so all tariffs are the same for China in three years.
Section 2: Non-Chinese Countries with Chinese Content
All products imported into the United States from any country containing Chinese content, including sub-assemblies, components, supply chain elements, and software, shall be subject to a 5% tariff. This tariff shall increase quarterly by 1.25%, until all Chinese content is removed from products entering the United States.
Section 3: Safeguards Against Trade Imbalances
(a) Developed country with GDP Per Capita above $20,000 will limit trade exceeding a 15:10 ratio of imports to exports with the United States shall be subject to an automatic 5% tariff on all imports to the USA. If the trade deficit with that country continues to grow, the tariff shall increase by 5% each year. If the country increases imports from the USA, bringing the ratio below 15:10, the tariff shall be removed.
(b) Un-Developed country with GDP Per Capita below $20,000 will limit trade exceeding a 2:1 ratio of imports to exports with the United States shall be subject to an automatic 5% tariff on all imports. If the trade deficit with that country continues to grow, the tariff shall increase by 5% each year. If the country increases imports from the USA, bringing the ratio below 2:1, the tariff shall be removed.
Breakdown: The international economic system functions with the US running a trade deficit. Essentially, we give money to other countries; they manufacture products for us. We want a deficit, but we don’t want it to be abused. The more countries willing to accept US debt, the more powerful the United States becomes. The problem arises when the US has a creditor like China that wants to disrupt this system.
(c) This new safeguard, adding a 5% tariff for imbalances, is to be implemented in the 48th month after the passing of this law. (Once Chinese components are removed from many products coming to the USA, numerous supply chains will drastically change, thus a safeguard tariff will make no sense during this readjustment period.)
Breakdown: By projecting four years into the future, we can anticipate that most countries will already be increasing their purchases from the USA. This four-year period can be used to convince these countries to sign free trade agreements with the United States, which will allow the US to export more agricultural products.
(d) US-owned factories in other countries with at least 70% US ownership, where at least 70% of the company is owned by US citizens, are exempt from US import tariffs, in all countries except China. In China, the tariffs remain as stated in Section 1 and 2.
Section 4: Countering Currency Manipulation, Malign Attacks and Deflation due to this law
(a) Quarterly Review: Every three months, a review shall be conducted to assess the extent to which China (and other countries) have manipulated its currency or implemented deflationary policies to counter the effects of tariffs imposed under this Act.
(b) Hacking, Retaliation, and Counter-Tariffs:
Import Reduction: If China reduces imports from the United States by more than 5% compared to the previous year’s amount, U.S. companies will be prohibited from selling technology for the COMAC c919 single-aisle jet.
If China reduces imports from the United States by more than 5% compared to the previous year’s amount, U.S. companies will be prohibited from selling technology in certain sectors. If China completely halts trade with the United States, the United States will respond by restricting all technology exports to China.
Retaliation: If China punishes U.S. farmers in response to the United States’ request for balanced trade, a one-time 5% tariff will be imposed on Chinese goods.
Hacking: If China is identified as hacking into U.S. companies or government institutions, there will be an automatic 5% rise in tariffs on Chinese goods for each instance of hacking.
Breakdown of this clause: The United States does not seek a complete decoupling from China; rather, it aims to achieve balanced trade, where imports from China are roughly equal to exports to China.
(b) Tariff Adjustment: If the review determines that China (and other countries) has devalued its currency or had deflation by any percentage over the preceding three-month period, tariffs on both direct imports from China and indirect imports with Chinese components shall be adjusted upward by that same percentage. For example, a 3% currency devaluation would result in an increase the tariff by 3% more that quater. This evaluation and adjustment shall be conducted quarterly.
Section 5: USMCA Renegotiation
(a) Upon renegotiation of the USMCA free trade agreement, the North American content requirement for automobiles originating in Mexico shall be increased from 75% to 90%. Automobiles not meeting this requirement shall be subject to a 7.5% tariff. (this will drive wage growth and eliminate unemployment in Mexico, helping to bring more prosperity, with the hope the citizens demand the narco state to end).
(b) No products made in Mexico with Chinese sub-assemblies or components may be sold in the United States or Canada. Any product containing Chinese components will be subject to the tariffs outlined in Section 2.
Section 6: Bilateral Trade Agreements and Priority Countries
The US government, through the Department of Commerce, shall prioritize trade with the following 21 countries and actively pursue bilateral trade agreements where they do not currently exist: Country, Population, GDP Per Capita
- Argentina 46 million $12,810 (IMF, 2024 est.)
- Bangladesh 170 million $2,790 (World Bank, 2022)
- Brazil 216 million $10,300 (IMF, 2024 est.)
- Cambodia 17 million $1,800 (World Bank, 2022)
- Chile 19 million $16,370 (IMF, 2024 est.)
- Colombia 52 million $7,920 (IMF, 2024 est.)
- Ecuador 18 million $6,850 (World Bank, 2022)
- Egypt 105 million $4,830 (World Bank, 2022)
- Indonesia 277 million $4,790 (World Bank, 2022)
- Kenya 55 million $2,080 (World Bank, 2022)
- Malaysia 33 million $11,700 (World Bank, 2022)
- Nigeria 218 million $2,080 (World Bank, 2022)
- Pakistan 235 million $1,660 (World Bank, 2022)
- Papua New Guinea 9 million $2,640 (World Bank, 2022)
- Peru 34 million $7,070 (World Bank, 2022)
- Philippines 115 million $3,910 (World Bank, 2022)
- Sri Lanka 22 million $3,810 (World Bank, 2022)
- Thailand 70 million $7,240 (World Bank, 2022)
- Turkey 85 million $9,660 (World Bank, 2022)
- Venezuela 29 million (Data unreliable due to political and economic instability)
- Vietnam 98 million $4,110 (World Bank, 2022)
US companies leaving China shall be encouraged to relocate their operations and supply chains to these countries.
Breakdown: These 21 countries, with a combined population of nearly 1.9 billion people, will experience growth and increased demand for food. They will need to import food, and the United States will have ample supplies to sell.
Section 7: For manufacturing that can return to the United States from China
US Government will provide incentives and tax breaks for any company that will return to the United States from China.
Section 8: Supporting Supply Chain Diversification
The United States shall direct relevant US international agencies, including:
- U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)
- Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)
- U.S. African Development Foundation (USADF)
- Inter-American Foundation (IAF)
- U.S. Commercial Service’s Liaison Office to the Asian Development Bank (CS ADB)
- International Finance Corporation (IFC)
to provide additional funding and support to the 21 priority countries listed in Section 7. This support shall focus on building infrastructure and facilitating the development of new supply chains to diversify global production away from China.
Section 9: Implementation and Enforcement
The relevant US government agencies, including the Department of Commerce, the United States Trade Representative (USTR), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), shall be responsible for enforcement of tariffs and to make sure that they are fulfilled.
What is the Hope?
- To out-trade China.
- To prevent short term deals that don’t resolve the problem.
- To reduce China’s imports and exports in dollar terms
- To achieve balanced trade with China.
- To eliminate Chinese goods from US supply chains.
- To bring manufacturing back to the United States.
- To shift manufacturing that doesn’t return to the US to 21 strategically chosen countries.
- To help raise per capita income in those 21 countries
- To enable the 1.9 billion people in those countries to import more from the United States.
- To increase US food exports as these populations gain greater purchasing power.
- To implement trade safeguards to prevent future imbalances.
- Most importantly to have the dollar reach more developing countries, so it is then more intertwined with their economies.
