Balanced Trade with China, the Only way the USA can win – An Ideal Bill to Pass into Law

Global South Rebalancing Trade, Increasing US Exports for Job Creation at Home, and Dollar Preservation as the International Reserve Currency Act

Section 1: Tariffs on Imports from China

(a) Phased Tariffs on Non-Alternative Goods: All products imported into the United States originating in China, for which there are no readily available alternative sources or that cannot be easily manufactured in other countries, shall be subject to a tariff of 22% – 45 days after signing this bill into law. Some exclusions may exist.  This tariff shall rise 0.5% per month and will continue increasing until the trade ratio is 1 : 1 (import/export ratio). The increases  in the tariffs will be suspended upon meeting the 1 to 1 ratio.  If there is a trade surplus with China then the tariff rate drops at 0.5% per month until the surplus is reduced to a 1 to 1 ratio balanced trade, and tariffs rises 0.5% a month if there is a deficit.  The 22% tariff and subsequent tariffs are placed on top of and in addition to all tariffs already on product imports from China.

(b) Alternative Goods and Future Technology: All products imported into the United States from China for which immediate alternative supply sources exist, mostly related to most commodities, most chemicals, food, shoes, apparel, domestic appliances, most textiles and other readily substitutable goods, as well as future technologies, shall be subject to a 100% tariff going into effect 45 days after signing this into law on top of any current tariffs on Chinese goods.

Section 2: Tariffs on other Countries with Chinese Content

All products imported into the United States from any country containing Chinese content, including sub-assemblies, components, supply chain elements, and software, shall be subject to a 4% tariff. This tariff shall increase quarterly by 1 %, until all Chinese content is removed from products entering the United States.  The tariff will rise in perpetuity.

Section 3: Safeguards Against Trade Imbalances

a) Countries with a population under 1,000,000 inhabitants will be excluded from the safeguards listed in items Section 3 (e).

b) Countries with a population between 1,000,000 and 6,000,000 inhabitants will have safeguard tariffs capped at 10% based on section 3 (e).

c) Vehicles from all countries that have not exported less than 5,000 vehicles to the United States in the last five years will have a 100% tariff. 

d) None of these tariffs will go into effect until January 1, 2030.

(e)  A 5% tariff will be automatically imposed on all imports from countries with a GDP per capita above $20,000 if their trade ratio with the United States exceeds 1.5:1 (imports to exports). If the trade ratio is below 1.5:1, no tariff applies. If the trade ratio remains above 1.5:1, the tariff increases by 1% per quarter. Conversely, if the trade ratio falls below 1.5:1, all tariffs imposed under this section are removed. For countries with a GDP per capita below $20,000, a 5% tariff will be imposed if their trade ratio with the United States exceeds 2:1. If the trade ratio is below 2:1, no tariff applies. If the trade ratio remains above 2:1, the tariff increases by 1% per quarter. If the trade ratio falls below 2:1, all tariffs imposed under this section are removed.g) The ratio is based on nearly all exports and all imports.

h) The exceptions for these tariffs are:

1. Vehicle tariffs are capped at 10% total.

2. Commodities, oil, LNG, minerals, and refined minerals are exempt from these tariffs.

3. Precious metals such as gold, palladium, and platinum and refined or unrefined rare earth mineral are excluded from the ratios, as well as the tariffs.       

Section 4: Countering Currency Manipulation, Deflation and Subsidies due to this Law

The bill is to encourage China to devalue its currency, and every few months United States raises tariffs to counter that devaluation.

Section 5: Prevention of Full Decoupling and Retaliation

(a) Prevention of Decoupling/Counter-Tariffs: If China drops imports 5% below the $147.5 billion 2023 level, the United States will impose technology restrictions on more benign technology, such as the COMAC C919 single-aisle aircraft, and other technologies, including international bans.

(b) Prevention of Full Decoupling: If China significantly reduces purchases by 20% or 30%, or attempts a full decoupling, more technology restrictions will be implemented. A full decoupling by China would result in the imposition of the most stringent technology restrictions

(c) Singling Out Farmers by China: If China specifically reduces agricultural purchases to punish United States farmers, the United States will restrict technology.

(d) Prevention of Technology Theft: If China copies or reverse engineers stolen technology to counter technology bans, the United States will place sanctions on any company that uses that technology. If China copies the technology for the COMAC C919 single-aisle plane and sells that plane to any country, the plane company will be sanctioned and confiscated for using unlicensed technology.  All cases of stolen technology sold into foreign countries will result in individuals who buy that technology from being sanctioned.

(e) Hacking: If China is identified hacking, each instance will result into further technology restrictions.

(f) Nationalization of US Companies’ Assets in China as a Form of Retaliation: If China confiscates US companies’ assets in China, then Chinese assets in the USA or held by third-party companies can be confiscated by the United States government, via all legal means necessary, to provide restitution to the victimized individuals and companies.

Section 6: Tariffs on products Imported to the United States by US owned factories in foreign countries Excluding China

  • Any US owned factory, operated by, managed by, with employees working for the US entity, which has at least 70% of the ownership of the entity as US citizens are exempt from all tariffs for all products entering the  United States from all countries except for China.
  • Vehicles, trucks and transportation vehicles are subject to normal tariffs.

Section 7: Bilateral Trade Agreements and Priority Countries

The US government out-trade China with the following 20 countries (2 billion people) and  pursue bilateral trade agreements where they do not currently exist with the focus on convincing these countries to drop tariffs on the United States so that the USA can export far more products.  As well as working with various government agencies such as Export Import Bank, and Commerce Department to expand economic relationships.

 Country, Population, GDP Per Capita

More Tradre between USA and these countries to counter China’s influence in the countries:

  1. Indonesia 277 million $4,790 (World Bank, 2022)**
  2. Peru 34 million $7,070 (World Bank, 2022)**
  3. Chile 19 million $16,370 (IMF, 2024 est.)**
  4. Brazil 216 million $10,300 (IMF, 2024 est.)**
  5. Malaysia 33 million $11,700 (World Bank, 2022)**
  6. Argentina 46 million $12,810 (IMF, 2024 est.)**, *
  7. Pakistan 235 million $1,660 (World Bank, 2022)*
  8. Egypt 112 million $4,830 (World Bank, 2022)*
  9. Ethiopia 126 million $1,060 (2022)*
  10. Sri Lanka 22 million $3,810 (World Bank, 2022)*
  11. Kenya 55 million $2,080 (World Bank, 2022)*
  12. Bangladesh 170 million $2,790 (World Bank, 2022)*
  13. South Africa: 60 million ($6,111 Focus Economics)*
  14. Nigeria 218 million $2,080 (World Bank, 2022)*
  15. Turkey 85 million $9,660 (World Bank, 2022)*
  16. Cambodia 17 million $1,800 (World Bank, 2022)
  17. Colombia 52 million $7,920 (IMF, 2024 est.)
  18. Ecuador 18 million $6,850 (World Bank, 2022)
  19. Philippines 115 million $3,910 (World Bank, 2022)
  20. Thailand 71 million $7,240 (World Bank, 2022)

Other Countries to be further engaged are Honduras, Dominican Republic, Guatamala, Urguay, Paraguay, Panama, Tunisia, Ghana, Zambia, El Salvador.

Importers shall be encouraged to relocate their operations first to the USA and if not the USA to these countries. In all cases these bilateral trade agreements require the countries to remove Chinese components from products that will be sent to the United States.

Section X (Policy Agenda): Counteracting China’s Trade Dominance

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