China’s strategic partnerships are evolving. While traditionally associated with countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, China is increasingly cultivating relationships with nations not typically seen as allies or direct allies to the United States. This shift is driven by China’s ambition to become a leading superpower, requiring a broader network of partnerships, friends and strategically located allies.
Over the past decade, China has focused on building alliances and strong friendships with countries like Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and France. These relationships provide China with increased influence and access to key markets.
Crucially, China aims to establish indispensable economic relationships where partner countries become heavily reliant on trade with China. Australia and Brazil exemplify this strategy, where the potential economic consequences of opposing China are significant. In their cases China represents 30% of their exports. A loss of China would result in economic collapse.
Currently, 16 countries maintain exceptionally favorable (for them) trade relationships with China, a deliberate strategy to further solidify China’s global influence. It is a concept of Mercantilism to grow wealth and relationships via trade.
Some countries on this list might seem surprising, given their strong alliances with the US. However, this reflects China’s long-term strategy of cultivating relationships, not just seeking short-term gains. When these countries offer even a small opening, China capitalizes on it, as we’ve seen with Brazil.
Japan: China is strategically demonstrating its desire for a balanced and mutually beneficial relationship with Japan. By maintaining nearly balanced trade, with imports from Japan reaching $165 billion, China signals its commitment to fair economic exchange. (numbers are approximate)
Essentially, China is conveying the following message to Japan: “We value a relationship based on equality and respect. We won’t exploit you, we are not a military aggressor against you and we expect the same in return. As evidenced by our significant imports, we are a more reliable economic partner than the United States. Let’s forge a stronger partnership, with the potential for a future alliance.”
South Korea: China is actively courting South Korea through a deliberate strategy of economic engagement. By importing $161 billion worth of goods and accepting a trade deficit, China aims to foster a strong relationship and sway South Korea away from its alliance with the United States.
Essentially, China’s message to South Korea is: “We prioritize our relationship with you and pose no threat. Distance yourselves from the United States and consider reducing the American military presence in your country. Our robust trade partnership demonstrates the benefits of aligning with us.”
Taiwan: China’s economic relationship with Taiwan is a key component of its reunification strategy. Despite a significant trade deficit, China maintains this imbalance as a powerful incentive. Taiwan’s exports to mainland China ($156 billion) and Taiwan’s imports from mainland China ($81 billion) results in a major trade surplus for Taiwan.
China’s message to Taiwan is clear: “Reunification is our ultimate goal, and we are willing to use economic leverage to achieve it. The substantial trade surplus we provide benefits your economy immensely. Those who support reunification will prosper under a unified China.” This strategy aims to create a pro-reunification business elite within Taiwan, further influencing public opinion and political decisions.
Australia: China’s substantial trade relationship with Australia, despite a $66.7 billion deficit (with $155.8 billion in imports), serves as a powerful tool of influence over this key US ally.
China’s message to Australia is clear: “Prioritize our economic partnership. Your prosperity depends on us. In any potential conflict involving the US, remain neutral and prioritize your own economic interests.” This strategy aims to weaken US alliances by highlighting the economic risks of supporting American policies that might antagonize China.
Malaysia: China is cultivating a strong relationship with Malaysia through favorable trade. Despite a $12.9 billion deficit, China’s imports from Malaysia reached $102.9 billion, demonstrating a commitment to economic engagement. This approach likely aims to strengthen ties with Malaysia and potentially draw it closer into China’s sphere of influence within Southeast Asia.
Russia: China’s relationship with Russia is deeply rooted in energy security. Despite a $44.1 billion trade deficit with Russia (with imports totaling $129.2 billion), China prioritizes this partnership to ensure a reliable energy supply. By securing pipeline access for Russian energy resources, China reduces its reliance on vulnerable ocean transport, particularly in the event of conflict. This strategic partnership with Russia enhances China’s energy independence and strengthens its position in a potential geopolitical crisis.
Indonesia: China’s approach to Indonesia emphasizes balanced trade and strategic non-alignment. China takes on a $5.5 billion deficit, China’s imports from Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, reached $74.2 billion. This demonstrates China’s commitment to fair economic exchange.
China’s message to Indonesia is clear: “Maintain your neutrality in the emerging multipolar world. We respect your sovereignty and are not demanding an alliance. Simply remain independent and avoid aligning with any major power, particularly the United States.” This strategy aims to prevent Indonesia from joining an opposing bloc, thereby expanding China’s sphere of influence in Southeast Asia.
Vietnam: China imported $92 billion worth of goods from Vietnam, while Vietnam’s imports from China were significantly higher. This trade balance reflects China’s strategic efforts to maintain influence in Vietnam and discourage it from aligning with the US.
Germany: China views Germany as its crucial strategic partner in Europe, fostering this relationship through carefully balanced trade. Despite a minor $9.5 billion surplus, China’s imports from Germany reached a substantial $129 billion. This near-balanced trade relationship is a deliberate strategy to maintain strong ties and ensure Germany’s neutrality in any potential conflict between China and the US.
By cultivating this strong economic partnership, China aims to prevent Germany from siding with the US in a trade war or geopolitical dispute. This effectively neutralizes a key US ally within Europe, limiting American influence and strengthening China’s position on the global stage.
New Zealand: China’s trade with New Zealand shows a modest surplus. China imported $13.5 billion worth of goods from New Zealand, while New Zealand imported $10 billion from China. This indicates a relatively balanced trade relationship, although slightly favoring New Zealand.
It simply states: USA buys about $6 billion from you, we buy $13 billion, we are better for you.
Saudi Arabia: China is actively expanding its influence in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia as a key focus. Despite Iran often being seen as China’s primary ally in the region, China’s trade with Saudi Arabia reveals a deeper strategy. China imported $64 billion worth of goods from Saudi Arabia while exporting only $43 billion, indicating a significant trade deficit.
This economic engagement, coupled with China’s diplomatic efforts like brokering the Saudi-Iran peace deal in 2023 and supporting Saudi Arabia’s entry into BRICS, demonstrates China’s ambition to reshape the regional power dynamics.
China recognizes Saudi Arabia’s pivotal role in the global oil market and its potential to challenge the US dollar’s dominance in oil trading (the petrodollar). As the US reduces its reliance on Middle Eastern oil, China is stepping in to fill the void. This allows China to increase its influence while potentially weakening the US-Saudi relationship, a key objective in China’s pursuit of global superpower status.
To counter this, the US and its allies may need to increase their oil imports from Saudi Arabia to maintain economic leverage and prevent China from dominating this strategically vital market.
United Arab Emirates (UAE): China maintains a significant trade deficit with the UAE, to the benefit of the latter. The UAE, a member of BRICS, is clearly seeking to strengthen its relationship with China.
Qatar: with its massive trade surplus, has positioned itself as an international power broker. China is actively cultivating a strong relationship with Qatar, aiming to leverage its influence and potentially challenge the petrodollar’s dominance in the future.
Canada: China and Canada maintain a balanced trade relationship, with China importing $44 billion worth of goods and exporting $45 billion. This is unsurprising given Canada’s resource-rich economy. However, the close relationship might seem unexpected considering occasional diplomatic tensions.
Strategically, China likely cultivates this relationship to moderate US actions. China needs Canada to advocate against sanctions and tariffs, even during potential Chinese aggression, such as towards Taiwan. China may be overstepping its expectations with Canada.
France: China’s trade relationship with France is strategically significant. In 2022, China imported $37 billion worth of goods from France, while France imported $45 billion from China. This relationship is notable due to French President Macron’s recent hesitancy to support Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression.
China likely views France as a crucial partner in Europe and aims to strengthen ties, potentially through accepting a trade deficit in the coming years. This economic leverage could further encourage France to maintain its neutral stance on Taiwan, weakening US-led efforts to counter China’s influence in the region.
Brazil: China is actively establishing Brazil as its primary strategic partner in South America. With a $44.1 billion trade deficit (with imports from Brazil totaling $122 billion), China is making significant investments in the relationship. This strategy aims to displace US influence and secure Brazil’s allegiance.
China’s message to Brazil is clear: “We are your reliable partner, offering economic support and cooperation that far surpasses what the US provides. We also share communist and socialist values.” This resonates with Brazil’s current ruling party, which appears increasingly aligned with China’s worldview.
China is solidifying this strategic partnership through focused trade and increased purchases from Brazil. This approach aims to create a strong economic dependency, making Brazil a key component of China’s global network and potentially diminishing US influence in the region.
The massive jumps in imports by China from Brazil speaks for itself:
2024: $130 billion
2023: $122 billion
2022: $105.9 billion
2021: $53.46 billion
2020: $67.79 billion
2019: $63.36 billion
2018: $36.7 billion
2017: $29 billion
The doubling of Brazil’s trade with China from 2021 to 2022 cannot be solely attributed to Trump’s tariffs which took place a few years earlier. There is speculation suggesting an unofficial agreement between Brazil’s PT Party and China to forge a closer alliance. This allegedly involved China support for PT. This potential pact raises concerns about undue foreign influence in Brazilian politics and the implications for Brazil’s relationship with the US.
Brazil represents a unique opportunity for China. The Brazilian left aligns with China ideologically and shares affinities with China’s allies, Cuba and Venezuela. This makes Brazil more receptive to Chinese influence.
Furthermore, Brazil’s production aligns with China’s needs, facilitating a large trade deficit in Brazil’s favor. This mutually beneficial trade relationship further strengthens ties and solidifies China’s position in South America.
There are other countries not listed here, such as Pakistan and Ethiopia, however China is actually using other tools besides trade to gain influence.
The reality is that the USA is blind, full of bureaucrats who attend endless meetings discussing progress, but not enough people are analyzing the situation unfolding before their eyes. If the USA doesn’t engage in stronger trade relationships, and stop wasting trading influence with strategy competitors like China, it will follow the path of declining empires.
